Gut vs. Data: The Real-World Balancing Act in Family Business Decisions
The First Cars That Drove Us, And Our Adventures
Before diving into the serious stuff, we kicked things off with a trip down memory lane, remembering our very first cars. Tom’s 1955 Chevy Bel Air (complete with some post-purchase muffler enhancements), Shirley’s 1984 Tornado (that stunning candy apple red), Kim’s 1982 Chevy Caprice Classic, and my own 1980 Pontiac Bonneville, all have a story to tell. Those first vehicles weren’t just rides; they were the first taste of ownership, trade-offs, and sometimes, unforeseen breakdowns (Kim, I still remember your Caprice getting towed on test day).
Just like those cars, our earliest business ventures were clunky, sometimes unreliable, but full of potential, and they taught us lessons that stuck.
Learning by Doing: When Instinct is Your Teacher
Tom has always been the first to say that when we started, most of what we did was a mix of youthful boldness and following a hunch. Whether it was launching a car wash because the closest one was a town away, opening a Dairy Queen on a piece of land we just felt was “right,” or even considering a shoe shine business, our earliest jumps weren’t heavy on spreadsheets.
Sometimes we were blissfully unaware of what could go wrong, but because the businesses generally worked out (ooh, that lucky streak), it built a foundation of experience. Over time, as Tom says, those trial-and-error moments taught us to listen more intently to our gut, but also started forming the “gut plus data” decision model we lean on today.
When the Experts Get It Wrong and Your Gut Proves Right
There are plenty of times when the “experts” handed us a report that didn’t match our experience. A prime example: the Action City project. The market analysis, performed by a pro from Texas, told us what size to build, how many bathrooms to have, and laid out projections that felt safe but limited. We chose to go bigger, way bigger, against their advice. And the results blew the projections away.
It’s easy to look back now and say, “Our gut was right!” but in truth, it was our history of testing, failing, learning, and succeeding that gave us the confidence to take the bigger risk.
The Long Game: When Gut Decisions Take Time to Prove Themselves
But let’s be honest: sometimes your gut is spot-on, but the payoff doesn’t come fast. Kim shared a story about buying land for a Dairy Queen based purely on an instinct that the spot was gold. Only after nearly a decade, nine years of grueling road construction, did the investment pay off. Sometimes patience is as important as instinct.
Another example where numbers said “no” but our hearts said “go”: purchasing an underperforming Dairy Queen that we just knew had untapped potential. The bank didn’t agree, but with 35 years in Dairy Queen under our belts, we were confident enough to find a lender who trusted our experience, and that bet paid off handsomely.
Tips for Navigating Uncertainty: Trust the Data, But Don’t Ignore Yourself
So, how do you make decisions when you’re not sure? Let’s dig in.
Learn by doing. Your gut only gets “trained” through hands-on experience. Start small, experiment, and pay attention when things don’t work (those are your real lessons).
If you can’t sleep, don’t do it. Both Kim and Shirley drove this point home: losing sleep is almost always your inner warning system. If you’re waking up at night, second-guessing your decision, it’s time to rethink.
Get buy-in from your family/team. Tom emphasized this: if you have a spouse, partner, or employees who are financially or emotionally invested, buy-in is non-negotiable.
Be ready to work. Most new ventures require “double-shifting” at the start, working your regular job and then your side hustle. It’s a grind, and you have to be prepared for it.
Use both gut AND data. The best decisions come when your instincts and your spreadsheets agree. If they don’t, dig deeper and give yourself permission to wait or walk away.
Wrapping Up
Our journey, just like those first old Chevys and Caprices, wasn’t always smooth or glamorous. Some ventures sputtered out, others roared ahead. But each one taught us when to trust the numbers and when to follow the little voice that comes from lived experience. If you’re weighing a risky move in family business, grind the numbers, but don’t ignore what your gut, history, and even a good night’s sleep are telling you. That’s what it really takes to win in the long run.
Have your own story or question about mixing gut and data in business? Reach out to me directly at [email protected], your next big idea could start right here.
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